jmmx

162 Comments

    • Apple: Great Company with Lofty Valuation - Due for Pullback [view article]
      @ Ricard

      I appreciate your point of view, but see a couple of things differently.

      1- Apple most certainly IS in the tech business. Their computers ARE tech, the iPods are tech, and the iPhone is tech. Did you just buy a new tie or does your iPhone make calls. It happens to be perhaps the ONLY one in the tech business that really is devoted to the total user experience.

      Partly because they are the only ones who do it, many people do not understand this, and think that it is just fashion. Others appreciate that this is a completely different approach. To make function beautiful does not diminish the functionality - rather it increases it. For example: Robert Maillart made beautiful, graceful bridges. Did the fact that they are gorgeous diminish make them fashion statements and not bridges? Is there anything that a Mac cannot do that a Windows PC can? (You cannot even say run MS Windows anymore!)

      So I am afraid that your "fashion business" statement misses the point.

      2- "Cannot imagine ... where Mac dominates the industry"

      You may be right, maybe Mac OS will never replace Windows OS. What if it only gets 40% of the business market worldwide over the next 10 years. (even 25%). That would be pretty big!

      yes?
       Aug 18 11:50 PM
    • LCA Vision Looks Cheap [view article]
      Fine analysis. Hits the nail on the head. The problem is squarely named: "... once the economic outlook improves." But until there is improvement in the economy, there is not likely to be much improvement in LCAV.

      And when will that happen???

      (longer in LCAV than I wish I were.)


       Aug 15 10:13 AM
    • Should Apple Be Worth More Than Google? [view article]
      Interesting argument, but a few observations:

      1- Of course Google has higher gross/net margins - it has no hardware products. This is one reason why Apple has higher margins than Dell & HP - because Apple has larger software component. So this is not an issue.

      2- Actually, if you look at the Yahoo key statistics page for each, there are several similar numbers. ROE, ROA, Quarterly earnings growth(yoy) & the trailing PE, & Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)

      3- The forward PE, and the PEG ratio favor Google. This, however, is precisely where the issue lies. The forward looking estimates are exactly what many people are beginning to question. The reflect estimates that are old and are likely conservative for two reasons.

      a- They do not really reflect an expected 40+% increase in Mac sales. this has occurred now for several quarters, and some people do not see why it should not continue.

      b- The figures mostly do not reflect the absolutely extraordinary success of the iPhone 3G launch. The iphone sales are a real phenomenon as is the success of the App Store.

      c- Finally, also ignored is the fact that, given the delayed accounting for iPhone sales, that real earnings are not reflected in a current quarter's EPS. Therefore a portion of EPS is hidden. Therefore the *real* PE ratio is NOT what is listed.

      IMHO
       Aug 15 03:29 AM
    • Appetite for Risk? Buy Some RIMM [view article]
      @ sgmsg

      I see lots on 60 M apps downloaded - but nothing on 3 M iPhones. It is, of course, totally believable.       Aug 11 01:47 PM
    • Appetite for Risk? Buy Some RIMM [view article]
      Hayweed has a good analysis.

      I think RIMM did a great thing, and that they will continue to be a significant player in future. They will, however, slip into being a secondary player. If they are really smart, they will recognize this and figure out how they can excel in this role.

      I do not believe I am simply being an Apple "fanboy" here. All you have to do is look at the news from WSJ that Apple has sold/distributed over 60 M applications from its App store. This in the first month of availability!!! Absolutely incredible!

      Furthermore, you cannot ignore the fact that Apple HAS answered most of business's major issues with the iPhone. Sure it will take time for them to switch, and not all of them will, but eventually most will.

      I hate to be a party pooper - but the handwriting is on the wall.
       Aug 11 12:11 PM
    • A Closer Look at the Dollar Rally [view article]
      Really good article! Great analysis.

      It is, however, just a technical analysis, and while I do believe that tech does indicate something about peoples mood and even economic conditions, There IS always still reality out there.

      I am not sure if the US economy is really out of the woods. The huge deficit is still hanging over us, and it remains to be seen if the financial crisis is really over - or is the other foot just about to fall? With predictions that the Republican Recession will be more protracted, I am not putting a lot of faith in a long term dollar rally.       Aug 09 12:51 PM
    • Which CEOs Have the Best and Worst Approval Ratings? [view article]
      Last chance to get aboard the Manzana Express. Soon Apple @ $190 will be history!

      As soon as they let out their new hardware upgrades and release the number of iPhones sold.

      IMHO
       Aug 08 01:52 PM
    • Apple Can Disable iPhone Apps, but Should They? [view article]
      You make some good points here. Pros and Cons.


       Aug 07 01:02 PM
    • The Global Reach of the First Million 3G iPhones [view article]
      @ some_guy & longapple

      You are both right (if my feeble old grey cells serve me right).

      I definitely recall that the original call was for 10M "by the end of 2008." Later, however, this very definitively was "clarified" as 10M IN 2008.

      As for "It remains to be seen..." LOL. If the TechCrunch report is correct, then Apple is shipping about 3.4 M per month. That means they will have 10 M 3G iPhones alone by the end of this quarter!

      Care for a lil wager Jason?
       Aug 06 05:59 PM
    • Research In Motion's 3G Counteroffensive: The Smartphone Arms Race Escalates [view article]
      @ Taher

      So - you going to buy a Mac now?

      :)       Aug 06 01:26 PM
    • Research In Motion's 3G Counteroffensive: The Smartphone Arms Race Escalates [view article]
      SEPT numbers * Aug 06 01:01 PM
    • Research In Motion's 3G Counteroffensive: The Smartphone Arms Race Escalates [view article]
      Wait until they get the Spt numbers on that chart! Can't wait to see those.

      So reports are Foxconn is maxed out at 800,000 units per week - and you still have a 2 week wait on ATT! I believe the numbers. Soon 20 more countries, including INDIA!

      Yesterday and today, it looks like maybe the street is beginning to figure it out. The banalysts can jump and shout and say NAY NAY NAY. But the numbers talk - and they can walk.

      IMHO
       Aug 06 01:01 PM
    • Research In Motion's 3G Counteroffensive: The Smartphone Arms Race Escalates [view article]
      Hey folks,

      Let's not pound on Changewave here. They are presenting their study with their information. Take it for what it represents. Sure I would do a different study but that's OK.

      I agree with the one-trick-pony thought. RIMM will hold off for a while, probably several years, but slowly they will be marginalized. Their best hope is to go with Android. Linux based systems are the best hope for Apple alternatives. There is a real need for a second player in the market to keep Apple honest. Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. (Vodka anybody?)

      IMHO
       Aug 06 12:34 PM
    • iPhone Production Rumors Swirl [view article]
      Look at the stock price! Sure the whole market is up, but Apple seldom moves 4+%.

      Maybe people are doing the math:
      800,000/week = 3.4M / month X 6 months = 21 M
      21 M x $500 x 20% Net margin (conservative) = 2+ B profit
      2.1 B / 900,000 = 2.33 EPS
      oops - that is 2 quarters
      so $1.16 EPS / Quarter

      --
      Of course this gets spread out over 6 quarters but still - it is money in the bank. It is EARNED, just deferred.

      Now think of the halo effect....
       Aug 05 03:33 PM
    • iPhone Production Rumors Swirl [view article]
      @ Tardis

      I pretty much agree with you except for one thing: Demand is NOT going to slow! Not for a long time. On Aug 22 there will be 20 new countries added, and (so they say) China by the end of the year, then into Christmas season.....

      Everything is blowing away Apple's own internal expectations. All i seem to hear is that they still are not really keeping up with present demand.

      Cool!
       Aug 05 11:19 AM
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