Daniel Jacome

http://www.cevichefund.com

504 Comments

    • Hedge Fund Tracking: Tremblant Capital [view article]
      keep up the good work Aug 18 01:33 AM
    • Google Ad Planner vs. ComScore [view article]
      gian and magid will crush google. google cant do everything. if anything, they should buy SCOR before comscore becomes a mid cap. SCORs current valuation is at the high end of where one would want to see these things trade in EV/EBITDA terms, but SCOR has first mover advatange, a proprietary process, and happy customers. The whole story is margin expansion here, since SCOR's infrastructure has already been carved out and the free cash flow spigot is about to turn around full blast. think about it: no debt, strong margins, low working capital needs, low incremental cap x, solid mamagement. this business screams buy me. I dont know what strategy you guys have carved out, but I am liking what I am seeing so far : the M: Metrix deal was sweet -- $44M call option on a low risk, high reward, fast growing segment (mobile media). Aug 18 01:30 AM
    • Skechers: Ignoring Obvious Value [view article]
      Nike wont buy a company with declining sales. Aug 18 01:23 AM
    • Book Review: 'Super Stocks' [view article]
      blah. companies can still manipulate sales too easily to pump the top line and makes themselves look cheaper on a P/S basis. Look at software companies that blew up in the last decade booking revs too early and lets not forget the whole BMY (channel stuffing) scandal. Aug 17 08:32 PM
    • Tween Looks for Justice in Mid-Market Retail Squeeze [view article]
      I dont know this company at all, but are you not worried about those uninspiring EBIT margin trends from 2005-2007? Aug 16 02:43 AM
    • Johnson & Johnson Profit-Taking Likely, Offering Better Entry Point [view article]
      Thanks, User242720!! Aug 14 01:01 PM
    • Appetite for Risk? Buy Some RIMM [view article]
      "The PEG of .43x signals great growth ahead as well with the company moving to solidify itself as #1 in the smartphone market, which in turn should increase free cash flows. "

      hmmm. low PEG could mean the buy side knows sell side estimates are waaaaay too high -- CSFB has some decent research out on RIMM; I'd look at it.       Aug 12 03:01 PM
    • Johnson & Johnson Profit-Taking Likely, Offering Better Entry Point [view article]
      Thank you for your comment -- we do not disagree that JNJ is a solid company with a cash flow spigot that could easily be used to reduce int exp, and thus free up more earnings power. However, we simply wanted to note -- or suggest, better -- that investors may be jumping aggressively into JNJ because of short term uncertainties with the market as a whole. This will likely continue (PMs pushing their analysts to focus on more stable cash flow companies, more recession proof names), but in the long term, which the Street's risk appetite improves, JNJ will see a pullback. Whether that is next quarter (unlikely) or in 2009 (likelier), no one knows.

      Put in a larger perspective: JNJ has outperformed the Dow over the last 30 years. It has approximately moved in tandem with the DJIA over the last 5Y. Over the last 2Y, it has underperformed the Dow. In the last 3 quarters roughly, JNJ has outperformed the Dow by a wide extent (we use 07 as a marker of "credit crisis begins")...

      All we wanted to "throw out there" is that those holding onto JNJ may want to look at their holdings a tad closer and determine if JNJ's run up is fully warranted by its fundamentals. Clearly, our work is the first tiny step (a sprinkle of evidence) in a much larger JNJ project, which may or may not ultimately corroborate what we we found.       Aug 11 03:57 PM
    • Am I Crazy to Own Gannett? [view article]
      "you’ll find out that structural operating cash flow (i.e. CFO before changes in the working capital and deferred tax, my preferred way to analyze a company’s cash power)..........."...
      ======================...

      why? I like the article, but you don't describe why this is the preferred way to look @ CFO. Call me old skool, but where I come from, investment in WC ties us cash. So how do you arrive @ CFO whilst backing these out?

      Aug 11 05:03 AM
    • A Microsoft Break-Up Could Unlock Its True Value - Barron's [view article]
      excellent idea; kudos to whoever this ex Goldman alum is and was wise enough to do a sum of parts on Softee. Aug 10 04:31 PM
    • The Case for Jamba Juice [view article]
      SA allows people who own stock in a company to post articles about that company -- but they are required to disclose it. Aug 05 02:31 AM
    • comScore, Inc. Q2 2008 Earnings Call Transcript [view article]
      Thanks for publishing this guys!!! I started transcribing it myself this past weekend after not seeing it on Friday : ) -

      Aug 04 05:05 PM
    • Strong Quarter and Improving Financial Results Make ComScore a Buy [view article]


      nice piece, I'm actually doing an extensive research report on SCOR right now and you have the right idea....

      1) stock is not cheap: on an EV/EBITDA, EV/sales, and fwd PE, SCOR tops its peers. I may have the wrong comp group, but I looked at companies like GOOG, OMTR, IT, FORR, ARB, & SRVY

      2) St is worried about the GOOG Ad Planner threat and that will be an overhang on shares until we see how much companies switch to the "free stuff" GOOG is pushing...I personally think the GOOG threat is overblown

      3) As soon as revs decelerate, the stock is getting crushed.

      4) St is paying up for stock b/c it is a pure play on what it does and they have the best management team in the media intelligence business, hands down..

      5) yes, cash on the balance sheet is nice, but we all know they will do more acquisitions going forward. at some point, SCOR may issue their rich deal currency (i.e stock) to swallow tuck in targets -- St may not like that.

      6) In a couple of years, when earnings stabalize, SCOR gets bought out. Read the management team bios -- these guys know how to create wonderfdul things, negotiate, and flip.

      7) you are underwater, but dont worry about it. I regressed the stock and got a beta of just .88, but this is still a very choppy stock. The motion of the Russell 2000 and SP600 only account for < 10% of this stock's movement ("R-squared"... also ran a 5000 iteration simulation and found that the chance of you losing $ on this stock is ~ 60% and the chance of you making > 10% is about 40%.....so net net, this is not a stock for your grandmother down in Boca Raton, FL...

      good luck!       Aug 04 04:52 PM
    • General Discussion on SCOR
      Where is the Q208 transcript??????? I'd love to have it for an extensive report I am doing


      ~ DJ       Aug 02 03:07 AM
    • Bancolombia: Attractive, But Not For the Faint of Heart (CIB) [view article]
      hi lockstep - I'll have to re-ramp on the stock, it has been a long time, obviously, since I looked at it. Aug 02 01:44 AM
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