Currency ETFs Won't Fight The Fed's Bernanke [View article]
The currency market is still a race to the bottom and Ben Bernanke is committed to not falling behind even though dollar depreciation causes inflation and doesn't help the US much since we are a trade deficit consumption economy.
Positioning Your Portfolio For A Bear Market [View article]
I agree with you on avoiding banks and buying miners. On large caps I think Walmart is good because of limited EU exposure. As for other large caps, be very careful. Most of them have a hearty portion of EU exposure not in bonds but in doing business in the region and may see their sales drop off a cliff there.
Continued Weakness In Europe, And How To Position For It [View article]
Gold and silver are much safer and it shows looking at its performance since QE went into effect. Everyone is losers in QE except banks, government employees, and those holding the commodities that go up from debasement be it food, oil, gold, silver, copper, steel, rare earths, or cotton.
Dramatic U.S. Dollar Sell-Off? Only a Matter of Time [View article]
Emerging markets slowed down last year due to China starting to apply the breaks. Chasing it may be chasing the train after it took off. And if you follow this author's perspective, if Asian currencies rise against the dollar it is bearish towards emerging markets.
Indeed, the US government must curb their deficit spending, if for no other reason they will soon run out of people wanting to buy their ever increasing amounts of bonds. Everyone is already shunning long term bonds for good reason. A bet against the dollar is a bet into growth stocks, foreign currency, and commodities.
This Is Not Behavior Befitting a Bear Market [View article]
I follow the lead of corporate profits more than sentiment, etc when it comes to investing in the stock market. Corporate profits have been fairly good and look to continue that way. However, government's big hand in the macro economy worries me. Inevitably it is not sustainable and can lead to a downturn when the free money fest comes to an end.
As for the economy, my sentiments go out to the average citizen. This rebound in corporate profits has come off the back of cost cutting and slimming down of the labor force. That is why there is a disconnect between a stock run up and the general economy.
Deflation: A Cleverly Laid Trap for Moms and Pops [View article]
The rise in commodities is indeed worrisome. Big across the board run-ups in commodities is the forerunner of terrible inflation. The Fed should be worried and Goldman should shut up making up stories about inflation to get people to take the side they aren't betting on. I guarantee their prop desk is tilted towards inflation even as their analysts warn of deflation. That's how they make a buck.
The weak US dollar bullish US stock market has been going on for well over a year now. Considering its astounding accuracy no wonder everyone is in on this trade. The room is getting crowded. I wonder what will happen if it ever stops working.
Of course, I'd love to see the good old days when a strong dollar also signified confidence in the US economy and resulted in a strong stock market as well. Are these days long gone?
The Disbelief in Current Global Macro Trends [View article]
Being that government/Federal Reserve is in control since inflation is uniquely caused by too much monetary expansion caused by the decisions of these two entities. And being that these two entities are inheriently chaotic if not outright biased towards doing the exact opposite of what they ought to most of the time. It is no wonder no one can decide what will happen.
If the Federal Reserve tightens too fast they can create another lose response to a downturn and then a great collapse due to too much tightening just like the Great Depression. This is deflationary and the banks end up taking tons of the private sectors assets before hitting restart. If the US government runs low on cash then curtails spending similar to the Great Depression a Great Depression might ensue.
If the government spends even more it may reach the limit of how much foreign nations wish to consume US Treasuries and inflation, dollar depreciation, and interest rates will rise. If the fed remains too lax with interest rates and refuses to drain their massive QE funny money supply we will die from an overheated economy and massive inflation.
As you can see, there is nothing you or the private sector can do to prevent the Federal reserve and US government from ruining or saving the economy. It is a money supply issue between those who issue and control it. That is not you or me, and increasingly is not even our elected officials even though the US Constitution explicitly wanted it that way. That's why it gave that exclusive right to the US Congress who gave it away to the Federal Reserve who is unelected and can do whatever it wants.
If you want a say in the matter press to have the US Congress have to make the decision again about monetary policy. Then if they fail you can punish them by kicking them out of office (this is the exact reason they probably made the Federal Reserve. They want the title of their office but none of the responsibility).
Currency ETFs Won't Fight The Fed's Bernanke [View article]
Positioning Your Portfolio For A Bear Market [View article]
Continued Weakness In Europe, And How To Position For It [View article]
Dramatic U.S. Dollar Sell-Off? Only a Matter of Time [View article]
Indeed, the US government must curb their deficit spending, if for no other reason they will soon run out of people wanting to buy their ever increasing amounts of bonds. Everyone is already shunning long term bonds for good reason. A bet against the dollar is a bet into growth stocks, foreign currency, and commodities.
This Is Not Behavior Befitting a Bear Market [View article]
As for the economy, my sentiments go out to the average citizen. This rebound in corporate profits has come off the back of cost cutting and slimming down of the labor force. That is why there is a disconnect between a stock run up and the general economy.
Deflation: A Cleverly Laid Trap for Moms and Pops [View article]
This Bullish Move Is for Real [View article]
Of course, I'd love to see the good old days when a strong dollar also signified confidence in the US economy and resulted in a strong stock market as well. Are these days long gone?
The Disbelief in Current Global Macro Trends [View article]
If the Federal Reserve tightens too fast they can create another lose response to a downturn and then a great collapse due to too much tightening just like the Great Depression. This is deflationary and the banks end up taking tons of the private sectors assets before hitting restart. If the US government runs low on cash then curtails spending similar to the Great Depression a Great Depression might ensue.
If the government spends even more it may reach the limit of how much foreign nations wish to consume US Treasuries and inflation, dollar depreciation, and interest rates will rise. If the fed remains too lax with interest rates and refuses to drain their massive QE funny money supply we will die from an overheated economy and massive inflation.
As you can see, there is nothing you or the private sector can do to prevent the Federal reserve and US government from ruining or saving the economy. It is a money supply issue between those who issue and control it. That is not you or me, and increasingly is not even our elected officials even though the US Constitution explicitly wanted it that way. That's why it gave that exclusive right to the US Congress who gave it away to the Federal Reserve who is unelected and can do whatever it wants.
If you want a say in the matter press to have the US Congress have to make the decision again about monetary policy. Then if they fail you can punish them by kicking them out of office (this is the exact reason they probably made the Federal Reserve. They want the title of their office but none of the responsibility).