Moon Kil Woong
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Macro Plays: Trending the Crash of 2011 [View article]
China, China has been fighting the inflation dragon which is much more than we have been doing. Sadly China is becoming more and more capitalist while the US has become more and more socialistic which accounts for much of our downfall. Aside from Democracy, it is conceivable that if China moves this way it may be the America of tomorrow while we are headed down the path of being the next European zone with decades of slow growth and government largess. Look at the US failures for fault first because they pale in contrast to China.
Industrial and commodity stocks. Yes they rallied and had a letdown. Although US industrial growth may have crested, commodity stocks are riding the road to inflation. If the dollar keeps rallying they will lose leadership. If not, they will resume an upturn.
Even so, don't depend on them for a further stock market rally. Look for leadership in tech I suppose because employment numbers aren't strong signals for strong retail yet. In my opinion after retail and housing show some bounce then you can look at the traditional end of the cycle.
Banks: Yes banks have not reformed and the TBTF are even bigger. The issue is simple. The banks have the politicians in charge in their back pocket and are all sucking off of the government and taxpayer. Things will get worse in the next big downturn.
I'm not as bearish as the author but there are some fundamental negatives like a strong dollar and lack of new leadership. And banks will be a constant thorn in our side as long as government allows them to be TBTF, lets them gamble with depositor's money, and keep off balance sheet bookkeeping. They have a license to lie, cheat, and steal.
Dr. Copper Spots a Monster Crash [View article]