5 Stocks Expected To Decline In 2012 [View article]
Good calls all around. CAT is the most controversial, but its run but I agree that its advantage going to China has largely been valued into the stock already. As mentioned earlier by me, they will face increased competition from Deere and Japanese who are entering the Chinese heavy equipment market as well.
EDAC Offers Investors Huge Upside, A Potential Double [View article]
A recession is usually not good for jet engine demand especially with the military cutting back and bankers worrying about their future jobs. Like a G6 is just a song. There won't be a health market for Gulfstream 5s for a long time.
How Profitable Is Boeing's 787 Dreamliner? Not Very [View article]
Agreed cash flow is king. I remain astounded at how little attention is paid to it and how amazed people are when "very profitable" companies crash 50-60 or 70% or more when their cash flow has been going negative long before their sales and profits do. Of the biggest current example must be CRM which may eat a lot of crow in 2012 given its terrible cash flow and high PE and expectations.
Defense Stocks Post Obama Speech: A Buying Opportunity [View article]
Before Bush Jr.'s defense spending spree the budget was in balance. On top of that you had a tax cut along the way. If you keep the tax cut then the giant sized defense spending must go to pull the US government deficit down to at least a more manageable size.
It's about time we wind down policing actions and hand holding and focus on our own people. I would not be surprised to see stagnant defense sector growth as a whole for the next 10 years. Even then, the US shoulders more military costs than any other country in the world in total and per capita. US citizen's are hard pressed to finance their own health care. Why should they pay thousands of dollars each every year on protecting people who don't even like us and wouldn't spend a dime on us if we were ever in need.
Remember WWII. The US spent billions reconstructing Europe and then the US forgave them of their debts. When Reagan asked them to return the favor by canceling out their debt to us they said forget it. Don't plan on getting anything back for helping Iraq or others. Iraq is already selling oil to China and others every time they have a choice not to sell it to us. There is no graciousness of love in us in Iraq, Afghanistan, or elsewhere. If anything they will increasingly dislike us the longer we stay. The only ones that like us is the people we give money to through military spending or sell weapons to. And those people's only friends are money.
How Analysts Can Make an Accurate Presentation of Free Cash Flow [View article]
Thanks for your candid analysis of why reported free cash flow tends to be very misleading. Sadly, too many investors and analysts don't consider cash flow as a priority if ever when investing. Cash flow means much more than even earnings my friend. If you realize this you will be taking the first step away from being the dupe of so many bad companies and investment houses peddling garbage companies and calling them gemstones.
Jim Cramer Is Better Than You Think [View article]
Great comment. The simple fact is higher beta stocks give you more gains on the upside and more losses onthe downside. The simple fact is most people don't look at real risk and probably shouldn't be stock picking. Of course you can say kudos to Cramer for being bullish but umm he was bullish leading up to the crash and is pretty much bullish constantly. So I remove any credit for that. Likewise, INTC and other companies listed here he was bullish before 2010, so really this should only include when he initiated a call. Also, it should subtract out every time he reversed his call, and there is no trading cost calculated. If done this way, his gains would be further diminished probably to the point where you don't beat the market.
Likewise, this list is somewhat cherry picking. I still go with the analysis by other SA posters that tracked his performance and winded up with a - gain. If 90% of his calls and statements are bolognia then shouldn't that be included since those listening must put up with his rants and raves?
I have watched people come out with great gains including mutual funds. If you look at beta you will find that large amounts of risk beyond normal market risk go on top of their outsized gains when the market goes their way. When it doesn't they fade into the woodwork and launch another fund next year after cherry picking a set of 20 or 30 portfolios which assures one will outperform. The market is full of phony bolognia and Cramer is just one of them. Listen to him at your own perl.
LOL ISRG is not overbought. It opens tomorrow over 10% up. Rather than quanting out technical trading people need to do their research. ISRG should be a $400+ stock and will be by years end. Facts are more important thhan technical trading. So I guess ISRG will be overboughter now lol.
The Economics of U.S. Military Interventions: The Numbers (Part 1) [View article]
It is essential for people to realize that we have pretty much crested in terms of our defense budget. Similar to how the USSR buckled financially due to the strain of a long drawn out war (Afghanistan) the US is in danger of a similar financial catastrophe.
The PE ratio for these companies should be low because current government spending in this segment is not sustainable. It is helping to create our current financial instability.
Boeing: Taking Airline Production Stocks for a Ride [View article]
Boeing has been much more an issue of delivery and follow through than actual demand. It is true that demand dropped off for them but much of it came due to delays in new airplanes and massive backlogs and delays on existing orders. Anyway, it's good they are getting back on track, but I don't think it is saying much about the health of the airline industry or the economy.
Friday Flashbacks: EU and the Ghost of Lehman Past [View article]
The fact that Portugal's people won't accept austerity and want more benefits is a mirror on all governments. Even though people say all governments have to do if they get in financial messes is raise taxes and cut spending to avoid default, the sad fact is politically that is not going to happen unless they default.
Increasing the risk premium for sovereign debt default is 100% correct. The US should be careful, the odds that it will never get its spiraling budget deficit under control before default is well above 10% right now in my eyes. Obviously, their bond rates don't reflect that in the slightest. If you ask me, long term US Treasury holders are just asking to lose boatloads.
If you disagree with me just go ask around and see if people would accept a 20% accross the board cut in defense, medicare, medicaid, education, etc. or a 10% across the board increase in taxes because that is what it would take to begin to balance this ship of state. Thinking the US will willfully reform itself after jumping off an economic cliff 9 years ago with Bush Jr. is dreaming. The US will default long before it gets the political will to reign in its governmental madness.
Growing Pains Create Friction Between China and India [View article]
China will inevitably grow more leery and more jealous of SE asian nations and India as they attempt to continue to monopolize low skilled low income manufacturing by supressing their currency and other artificial means.
Like all developing countries, they must pass on this economic torch to poorer nations. The territorial dispute is minor int the face of growing global competition. China, the US, and the rest of the world must face it or find themselves clinging to old business practices that lead them to increasing irrelevance in the modern age.
Much of the expectation in earnings growth is already valued into this market. If we get anemic earnings growth stocks will go down not up. The only major reason why I would agree with his premise is if he assumes that the dollar will depreciate 5-10% a year like it is this year, then the Dow only has to hold its own relative to the depreciation to double. With a lot of Dow firms deriving some component of their revenues from overseas that shouldn't be hard to accomplish.
With Bernake at the helm, persistent dollar depreciation is a very high probability.
The index is not the only thing that hasn't changed much. The Trade Center hole in the ground is still sitting there. What a shame and embarassment.
There has been very little progress and a lot of harm done in the last 8 years financially and socially.
The only reason we are clamoring for government support these days is because government has completely failed at insuring economic security, regulatory honesty, and fiscal restraint. That which is destroying us is that which we have asked to save us.
I think we need to take a good long hard look at ourselves and what we are doing or not doing to insure domestic teanquilty. Certainly, being beholden to the rest of the world for oil, commodities, cheap labor, etc. is not a good way at protecting our safety erconomically or otherwise. Needlessly running up our debt to levels where we must beg China and others to buy our bonds also weakens the US. Economic strength more often proves more valuable than military strength. Without a strong economy it doesn't matter what you spend in defense, as proven by the fall of the USSR. We should wise up now and stop thinking government can solve everything by printing more money. This only leads to crippling our free market economy which is the source for our past economic resliency.
Has Investing in America Become Passe? [View article]
Mr Schaefer: I really appreciate someone pointing out all the right things in our system. It is true that so far, the US has survived the slings and arrows of a slew of bad governments and their decisions. It is also true that in terms of opportunity, the US offers it bar none. However, the millstone of government debt, currency depriciation, and bad and lacking regulatory systems and accounting is gradually increasing.
It is true that no other nation comes close to the US in terms of productivity and creativity and certainly technology will lead the path to future prosperity as it always has. Unfortunately, that path has been marred by allowing financial institutions to create a large brain drain in the US as it increased leverage and its component of the economy to occupy 21% of the profits in 2007-2008. This discturbance has been gradually shifting our manpower from productive sectors in the economy to the less productive portion of financial manipulation. Although the efficient allocation of wealth is laudable, there comes a point where such allocation, especially when it needlessly encourages overleverage and consumption of your precious little assets (like encouraging second mortgages), is not only unneccesary but is outright detrimental to the market.
Certainly I hope for the US to continue to be a beacon for democracy, capitalism, freedom and the right to choose one's destiny. However, allowing TARP and arbitrary giveaways, moral hazard, and socializing large swaths of our economy while protecting bankrupt companies with public funds all fies in the face of what is uniquely American. I'd rather suffer a depression than than suffer the destruction of the American system of capitalism and risk reward that made and will keep America great.
When you hear people complaining about the direction America is taking in a negative light, many on that side are 100% in agreement with your position in wanting to keep all that is good and deride all that is ruining it. Bulls and bears alike must unite in keeping a capitalist economy alive and thriving. For without it, we need not even have a market, only the connected and the poor like say North Korea. So far this downturn has only resulted in greater concentrations of wealth which also has meant gerater government as a component of GDP and greater percentages of total assets resting with the very banks and financial institutions that promulgated the downturn in the first place. Those that caused the recession are the principal beneficiaries. This is moral hazard on the highest level and goes 100% against everything positive you mentioned in your article. I hope you understand and agree.
My Thoughts on Bernanke, Boeing and Citibank [View article]
Good points. Congress has been pushing pork for the last 8 years. Why stop now.
As for Boeing, they are locked in a battle with Europe over who can get the most government/military contracts and subsidies. I hope the US wins because it will help offset the taxpayers cost/investment. If we loose, we will end up with a lot of cost and nothing to show for it.
5 Stocks Expected To Decline In 2012 [View article]
EDAC Offers Investors Huge Upside, A Potential Double [View article]
How Profitable Is Boeing's 787 Dreamliner? Not Very [View article]
Defense Stocks Post Obama Speech: A Buying Opportunity [View article]
It's about time we wind down policing actions and hand holding and focus on our own people. I would not be surprised to see stagnant defense sector growth as a whole for the next 10 years. Even then, the US shoulders more military costs than any other country in the world in total and per capita. US citizen's are hard pressed to finance their own health care. Why should they pay thousands of dollars each every year on protecting people who don't even like us and wouldn't spend a dime on us if we were ever in need.
Remember WWII. The US spent billions reconstructing Europe and then the US forgave them of their debts. When Reagan asked them to return the favor by canceling out their debt to us they said forget it. Don't plan on getting anything back for helping Iraq or others. Iraq is already selling oil to China and others every time they have a choice not to sell it to us. There is no graciousness of love in us in Iraq, Afghanistan, or elsewhere. If anything they will increasingly dislike us the longer we stay. The only ones that like us is the people we give money to through military spending or sell weapons to. And those people's only friends are money.
How Analysts Can Make an Accurate Presentation of Free Cash Flow [View article]
Jim Cramer Is Better Than You Think [View article]
Likewise, this list is somewhat cherry picking. I still go with the analysis by other SA posters that tracked his performance and winded up with a - gain. If 90% of his calls and statements are bolognia then shouldn't that be included since those listening must put up with his rants and raves?
I have watched people come out with great gains including mutual funds. If you look at beta you will find that large amounts of risk beyond normal market risk go on top of their outsized gains when the market goes their way. When it doesn't they fade into the woodwork and launch another fund next year after cherry picking a set of 20 or 30 portfolios which assures one will outperform. The market is full of phony bolognia and Cramer is just one of them. Listen to him at your own perl.
Most Overbought S&P 500 Stocks [View article]
The Economics of U.S. Military Interventions: The Numbers (Part 1) [View article]
The PE ratio for these companies should be low because current government spending in this segment is not sustainable. It is helping to create our current financial instability.
Boeing: Taking Airline Production Stocks for a Ride [View article]
Friday Flashbacks: EU and the Ghost of Lehman Past [View article]
Increasing the risk premium for sovereign debt default is 100% correct. The US should be careful, the odds that it will never get its spiraling budget deficit under control before default is well above 10% right now in my eyes. Obviously, their bond rates don't reflect that in the slightest. If you ask me, long term US Treasury holders are just asking to lose boatloads.
If you disagree with me just go ask around and see if people would accept a 20% accross the board cut in defense, medicare, medicaid, education, etc. or a 10% across the board increase in taxes because that is what it would take to begin to balance this ship of state. Thinking the US will willfully reform itself after jumping off an economic cliff 9 years ago with Bush Jr. is dreaming. The US will default long before it gets the political will to reign in its governmental madness.
Growing Pains Create Friction Between China and India [View article]
Like all developing countries, they must pass on this economic torch to poorer nations. The territorial dispute is minor int the face of growing global competition. China, the US, and the rest of the world must face it or find themselves clinging to old business practices that lead them to increasing irrelevance in the modern age.
A Dow Double in 10 years? Easy [View article]
With Bernake at the helm, persistent dollar depreciation is a very high probability.
Gone Nowhere in 8 Years [View article]
There has been very little progress and a lot of harm done in the last 8 years financially and socially.
The only reason we are clamoring for government support these days is because government has completely failed at insuring economic security, regulatory honesty, and fiscal restraint. That which is destroying us is that which we have asked to save us.
I think we need to take a good long hard look at ourselves and what we are doing or not doing to insure domestic teanquilty. Certainly, being beholden to the rest of the world for oil, commodities, cheap labor, etc. is not a good way at protecting our safety erconomically or otherwise. Needlessly running up our debt to levels where we must beg China and others to buy our bonds also weakens the US. Economic strength more often proves more valuable than military strength. Without a strong economy it doesn't matter what you spend in defense, as proven by the fall of the USSR. We should wise up now and stop thinking government can solve everything by printing more money. This only leads to crippling our free market economy which is the source for our past economic resliency.
Has Investing in America Become Passe? [View article]
It is true that no other nation comes close to the US in terms of productivity and creativity and certainly technology will lead the path to future prosperity as it always has. Unfortunately, that path has been marred by allowing financial institutions to create a large brain drain in the US as it increased leverage and its component of the economy to occupy 21% of the profits in 2007-2008. This discturbance has been gradually shifting our manpower from productive sectors in the economy to the less productive portion of financial manipulation. Although the efficient allocation of wealth is laudable, there comes a point where such allocation, especially when it needlessly encourages overleverage and consumption of your precious little assets (like encouraging second mortgages), is not only unneccesary but is outright detrimental to the market.
Certainly I hope for the US to continue to be a beacon for democracy, capitalism, freedom and the right to choose one's destiny. However, allowing TARP and arbitrary giveaways, moral hazard, and socializing large swaths of our economy while protecting bankrupt companies with public funds all fies in the face of what is uniquely American. I'd rather suffer a depression than than suffer the destruction of the American system of capitalism and risk reward that made and will keep America great.
When you hear people complaining about the direction America is taking in a negative light, many on that side are 100% in agreement with your position in wanting to keep all that is good and deride all that is ruining it. Bulls and bears alike must unite in keeping a capitalist economy alive and thriving. For without it, we need not even have a market, only the connected and the poor like say North Korea.
So far this downturn has only resulted in greater concentrations of wealth which also has meant gerater government as a component of GDP and greater percentages of total assets resting with the very banks and financial institutions that promulgated the downturn in the first place. Those that caused the recession are the principal beneficiaries. This is moral hazard on the highest level and goes 100% against everything positive you mentioned in your article. I hope you understand and agree.
My Thoughts on Bernanke, Boeing and Citibank [View article]
As for Boeing, they are locked in a battle with Europe over who can get the most government/military contracts and subsidies. I hope the US wins because it will help offset the taxpayers cost/investment. If we loose, we will end up with a lot of cost and nothing to show for it.