Applied Materials Ready To Bounce On Book To Bill Improvement [View article]
There is worry that their semi cycle upside may end next year rather than later. If so, their current profitability means nothing in terms of the stock price movement.
Those expecting the quick up and down trend in semis and semi equipment have been taken off guard. A long term uptrend was unexpected. People called an end to the cycle in 2010 and 2011 may continue an up cycle. Already some have prediced a big downtrend in 2012. Semi analysts are always like fortune tellers predicting great growth or calamity. Seldom are they right and they never predict the most commoon outcome which is business as usual.
To Trade or Not to Trade: An Applied Materials Earnings Preview [View article]
AMAT has performed well in this very long semi upturn. The fact they are benefitting more and more as nanometer gets smaller and smaller continues to counter skeptics. Their solar moves also have helped and will continue to do so. I remain long in this stock.
Beware After Hours Upside Move in Applied Materials [View article]
It is strange that tech is getting hit abnormally hard on middle east tensions when tech has little to nothing to do with oil. As for AMAT and others who are in solar's supply chain, shouldn't this be a mild positive? I guess the market doesn't connect dots so well sometimes.
Ray Dalio's Favorite Long-Term Picks [View article]
This is more a Bridgewater sales sheet more than stock or economics article. And in fact, the addition of their own cash and disclosure as to increased investment can pump a stock themselves. As many fund managers can attest to, removing their position out of a stock often drags it down to the point in which they bought it or lower.
LOL ISRG is not overbought. It opens tomorrow over 10% up. Rather than quanting out technical trading people need to do their research. ISRG should be a $400+ stock and will be by years end. Facts are more important thhan technical trading. So I guess ISRG will be overboughter now lol.
The Semiconductor Equipment Bubble Has Burst [View article]
I agree that the economy will recover due to individual companies progress not governmental meddling. However, in the tech area we are experiencing a lull but that is due to seasonality. Leading up to September you have a huge ramp preparing for the holiday shipment, Oct, Nov, Dec you have a lull. Then you get a new year pick up (mostly on government spending).
It is ironic the semi cycle rose during this downturn and it is not clear if it is over or will keep rising. Any downward dip is not expected to be horrible simply because cap-ex expansion has been all but muted.
Applied Materials: Plans for Layoffs, Cautious Outlook on Solar [View article]
AMAT's news is not inspiring for semis. BAC's downgrade of the semi industry is prescient and correct. Cap-Ex spending buy businesses is not resurgent (how can it be with continued layoffs) and aside from netbooks growing by leaps and bounds the computer market is not as lusterous as one might imagine after hearing Intel's pep rally.
Congrats to an insigtful analyst for once. Although he may be playing the end of the holiday season ramp that winds up by the beginning of November, I think he is on to something.
As for the broader market, William is right, sectoral fundamentals mean little in this bubble rally. All that really matters is if the government and Fed keep pouring hundreds of billions in the market and devaluing the dollar. Nothing can countermand such strong bubble mechanics save inflation (signalling the fact it all must end soon) and/or a refusal by anyone to buy dollars or US Treasuries.
Short Interest on Nasdaq: Why the Data Delay? [View article]
All brokerages... errmmm I mean banks now... know the total short interest positions of their firm and clients by neccesity. The larger you are the better your information. Gee why don't you trust that Goldman Sacs won't use this information for its own benefit?
And even if you don't trust that they won't use the information for their own gain, the SEC has not determined that it should be illegal. So accordingly everything is perfectly fine, right? Of course, the SEC hasn't really determined anything should be illegal except when they demand firms pay some penalty without admitting guilt every once and a while. Even when they do this, they tend not to ever make substantive remedies for it. I assume they do this so they can bilk them again whenever they're in need of money. Anyway the charges are usually nothing big like censoring traders for cheating their customers and what not. Like anyone cares about little fish anyway.
So yes, Kirk Lindstrom has a point. Cynicysm pays even if there isn't a whole lot you can do about it. A critical mind is a terrible thing to waste.
Surviving Semi Downturn: Five Stocks That Will Thrive After 2009, Part II [View article]
Everyone is entitled to their opinion. About Qualcomm, perhaps he sees it as a bloated firm run by a bunch of attorneys peddling a technology no one would cry for if it dissapeared off the face of the earth tomorrow. Or perhaps he likes it's balance sheet and current revenues despite having to wage legal warfare every day of its existence and beg the government to try to strong arm other countries into adopting their technology. Either way, it's the author's choice. He already listed over 10 fine companies. Need he list 100?
I don't own Qualcomm nor short it nor do I own any of these companies at this point in time. I owned XLNX, AMAT, LLTC, TXN, LSCC, and ALTR before but now am not long or short them.
Will Capacity Utilization Tell Us the Recession Is Over? [View article]
With more and more of the economy in the services side utlilzation means much much less there days. Unemployment and wages are a much better indicator. With wages falling and the hours of work dropping the unemployment picture looks a lot more dour than just looking at how many jobs were lost each month.
As wrixon points out both capacity and the number of employed are dropping making the same numbers worse than previous. 500k people losing their jobs is much worse now that there are already about 5 million jobs lost. Likewise 40% utilization is much worse if 10% of all factories are already retired.
I am not convinced we are seeing the bottom yet. Perhapse in Q4. And even then, there is no guarantee things won't slip back down after the holiday season and with higher inflation on the horizon. Thus my thinking moves at earliest to 2010 not 2009 for a solid verifyable bottom.
Semi Shortage: Why I'm Waiting It Out [View article]
Hmmm semi's have been burning their Capex cash and killing expansions and upgrades. This is not a sign of health. But at least they were smart and raised cash when the going was good. The bad fact about this is none of them are going under so the ones remaining can feast on their carcasses like the previous downturns.
As for AMAT, it is still too overpriced due to it's solar play which is such a tiny fraction of it's business it's laughable. If solar will bail them out, then that means the semi equipment market has ceased to exist.
U.S. Rejects Nationalization of Citi and BAC [View article]
Well something needs to be done with these lemons. Personally, bankruptcy seems like the most justifiable even if we have to eat the loss. It looks like the taxpayers gonna eat the loss anyway even if it doesn't go into bankruptcy.
As for BAC, you can say your profitable or whatever you want with current banking rules since you can hide derivatives losses, etc. Cash flow is still proving that BAC is not healthy and keeps needing mass reserve injections far exceeding any "profit" to stem the tide of losses.
Applied Materials Ready To Bounce On Book To Bill Improvement [View article]
Applied Materials Is A Hidden Potential Dividend Income Play [View article]
Earnings Preview: Applied Materials [View article]
Semiconductor Equipment Revenues Ramping Higher [View article]
I've been long AMAT and it has paid.
To Trade or Not to Trade: An Applied Materials Earnings Preview [View article]
Beware After Hours Upside Move in Applied Materials [View article]
Ray Dalio's Favorite Long-Term Picks [View article]
Most Overbought S&P 500 Stocks [View article]
The Semiconductor Equipment Bubble Has Burst [View article]
It is ironic the semi cycle rose during this downturn and it is not clear if it is over or will keep rising. Any downward dip is not expected to be horrible simply because cap-ex expansion has been all but muted.
Applied Materials: Plans for Layoffs, Cautious Outlook on Solar [View article]
Congrats to an insigtful analyst for once. Although he may be playing the end of the holiday season ramp that winds up by the beginning of November, I think he is on to something.
As for the broader market, William is right, sectoral fundamentals mean little in this bubble rally. All that really matters is if the government and Fed keep pouring hundreds of billions in the market and devaluing the dollar. Nothing can countermand such strong bubble mechanics save inflation (signalling the fact it all must end soon) and/or a refusal by anyone to buy dollars or US Treasuries.
Short Interest on Nasdaq: Why the Data Delay? [View article]
And even if you don't trust that they won't use the information for their own gain, the SEC has not determined that it should be illegal. So accordingly everything is perfectly fine, right? Of course, the SEC hasn't really determined anything should be illegal except when they demand firms pay some penalty without admitting guilt every once and a while. Even when they do this, they tend not to ever make substantive remedies for it. I assume they do this so they can bilk them again whenever they're in need of money. Anyway the charges are usually nothing big like censoring traders for cheating their customers and what not. Like anyone cares about little fish anyway.
So yes, Kirk Lindstrom has a point. Cynicysm pays even if there isn't a whole lot you can do about it. A critical mind is a terrible thing to waste.
Surviving Semi Downturn: Five Stocks That Will Thrive After 2009, Part II [View article]
I don't own Qualcomm nor short it nor do I own any of these companies at this point in time. I owned XLNX, AMAT, LLTC, TXN, LSCC, and ALTR before but now am not long or short them.
Will Capacity Utilization Tell Us the Recession Is Over? [View article]
As wrixon points out both capacity and the number of employed are dropping making the same numbers worse than previous. 500k people losing their jobs is much worse now that there are already about 5 million jobs lost. Likewise 40% utilization is much worse if 10% of all factories are already retired.
I am not convinced we are seeing the bottom yet. Perhapse in Q4. And even then, there is no guarantee things won't slip back down after the holiday season and with higher inflation on the horizon. Thus my thinking moves at earliest to 2010 not 2009 for a solid verifyable bottom.
Semi Shortage: Why I'm Waiting It Out [View article]
As for AMAT, it is still too overpriced due to it's solar play which is such a tiny fraction of it's business it's laughable. If solar will bail them out, then that means the semi equipment market has ceased to exist.
U.S. Rejects Nationalization of Citi and BAC [View article]
As for BAC, you can say your profitable or whatever you want with current banking rules since you can hide derivatives losses, etc. Cash flow is still proving that BAC is not healthy and keeps needing mass reserve injections far exceeding any "profit" to stem the tide of losses.