5 Stocks Expected To Decline In 2012 [View article]
Good calls all around. CAT is the most controversial, but its run but I agree that its advantage going to China has largely been valued into the stock already. As mentioned earlier by me, they will face increased competition from Deere and Japanese who are entering the Chinese heavy equipment market as well.
Mark My Words, These Stocks Will Double In 2012 [View article]
The market may be resilient but companies like Citibank and B of A are not. Ford is a good pick as is Freeport I think if there is a mild recovery. Coal demand will be subdued in the US as more environmental restrictions close more of them in 2012 which may not be good for Peabody.
If the US forces China to raise the RMB you are looking at quite the opposite of deflation. Even the 7% increase China has done has kept deflation in the US clearly at bay. The long run concern remains inflation given it's not tame even in this weak environment. For example this year medical premiums jumped over 7% annually. That doesn't sound like deflation or a success story for socialized medical reform lol.
I'm sure they ran the numbers and graphs before recommending these. I'm curious to see how they pan out 5 years from now. I bet the graph doesn't look so nifty. Of course they know only a few of us (hopefully on SA) will remember their fateful recommendations and call them on it. And by then they will have tons of excuses like hey the whole market went down, black swan, and the most common one which is "we recommended something else way back whenever".
I have watched these stock lists go from one failed recommendation to another for years from Krispy Kreme, Enron, and Boston Market to Crocs, Haliburton, Bof A, and Bre-X. Basically, I've noticed they manage to always capture the worst stocks and stock frauds along with a few gems. They also like current winners rather than seeing future category winners. 10 years ago you will probably see them recommending Dell, Microsoft, and Cisco not Apple.
Second Quarter Earnings Preview: Alcoa Launches Reporting Season [View article]
I think financials will be a weak spot in this quarters earnings. I do think earnings are growing but at a slower rate than expected. Whether it shows up in this quarter will be telling. I'm looking for weakness in financials, semiconductors, housing and construction materials, transports, and computer hardware. The rest I think will generally be up.
Why the Gold Rush Is Out of Steam and How to Respond [View article]
Gold is increasingly completely controlled by what the government and Federal Reserve choose to do. If they continue to flood the market with debt and devalue the dollar gold's rise is only the tip of the iceberg. If they let the economy slide and cut money supply possibly to enable the Federal Reserve to implement QE III then it will drop. Anotherwords, it is money supply that is driving the depreciation or appreciation of the dollar which then affects gold and commodities. If you think oil is too high blame the government for over printing. If you think gold is too high blame the government and Federal Reserve for ridiculously loose monetary policy that is enabling banks to get filthy rich while they starve out the rest of the economy lending back to the government and not to the public.
Sure in inflation stocks may outperform gold. That is commodity stocks including gold mining stocks. That doesn't make gold a bad buy. It certainly makes it better than treasury notes.
These Five Economic Barometer Stocks Are Pointing to a Higher Market [View article]
I don't see why these 5 companies represent the future of the country more than say the S&P 500 or Dow. Of course, the whole market is up on a weaker dollar. And indeed these companies with foreign exposure should outperform precisely because of it. So the future is brighter because the dollar is weaker?
I'm skeptical that we are playing a dangerous currency game. In my mind, he future of the country rests in lower foreign energy dependence, medical and tech advances, and lower government and private sector leverage.
Is Alcoa the First Sign of 'Sell the News' This Earnings Season? [View article]
I gotta agree with R Williams on that. They only make it if the analysts set their bar ridiculously low. The market still expects decent results for the rest of the economy. We will see if analysts are closer to the mark than the past 2 quarters where they underestimated by a mile (Conservative is hardly the word for their poor estimates. Just plain wrong is closer to the truth).
Alcoa: Reports In-Line, But Misses Revenue Estimates [View article]
Righto Pragmatic Capitalists. The market is expecting quite a lot this quarter. I think it has something to do with the fact analysts have been under-estimating quarter after quarter after quarter. We have come to expect more from companies and a whole lot less from analysts.
They will keep bumping up numbers until they miss in droves. When they do you will be too late and the next recession will be upon you (a few months ago and after the stock market is down over 25% I'd guess). I don't think that time is upon us yet, so I expect decent earnings from a synthetic government stimulated market yet again.
Understanding the Dollar's Reversal: Who Will Feel the Pain? [View article]
I don't see any meaningful reveral in Fed policy until rthe new year. It has already given up defending the 14% decline in the dollar this year. What's a few more percentage points. That being said Dubai and other factors ceratinly don't bolster devaluation of an already trampled currency. Likewise, a weakening of unemployment doesn't bode well for inflation. God forbid that actual people and not banks get the newly minted money the Federal reserve gave to banks to falsify their balance sheets and make income where there is naught.
I think that the Fed actually believes that if peasants (you and I) actually get money they have failed in their duty to further enrich financial institution they represent vs. everyone else. For your information, banks have never owned so much of America as they do today. I can see Bernanke cheering with all his friends, "Long live the Federal Reserve and fiat money. Down with populism, democracy, and all that rubbish."
Global Markets in Review: Risky Assets Disconnect from Fundamentals [View article]
The reason risky assets have a market right now is because they seem to be the only assets that pay a decent (but not fair) value for their risk. Certainly safe assets like US Treasuries don't even cover for dollar devaluation, let along current inflation and future inflation. Likewise, with the government using taxpayers money to lure more people into the housing fiasco with low interest rates (yes you still can buy an ARM with low down despite all the banter about regulating the financial system).
Banks now sell mortgages at 5.xx % which can hardly cover the default risk let alone infation etc. The only reason they do is because they can dump them on Fannie Mae, Fredie Mac, Treasury, Federal Reserve, or FHA. Thus the taxpayer is taking all the risk. No bank in their right mind would sell one without being able to sell it to a government or quasi-government entity. Thus, traditional bonds have also becoming low interest paying garbage manipulated by the government so they won't reflect real risk either.
Thus we have what's left, stock and equity speculation, commodities to reflect real inflation and curb real dollar depreciation, and high yielding junk that at least pays enough to cover the 15% currency devaluation we are looking at this year and perhaps next year. At this rate, if you think the Peso was garbage 20 years ago get ready to feel like you're living in the real New Mexico. I wonder what they will think when Americans start accepting pesos as the preferable curency for payment over greenbacks. The Federal Reserve is shameful.
Much of the expectation in earnings growth is already valued into this market. If we get anemic earnings growth stocks will go down not up. The only major reason why I would agree with his premise is if he assumes that the dollar will depreciate 5-10% a year like it is this year, then the Dow only has to hold its own relative to the depreciation to double. With a lot of Dow firms deriving some component of their revenues from overseas that shouldn't be hard to accomplish.
With Bernake at the helm, persistent dollar depreciation is a very high probability.
The index is not the only thing that hasn't changed much. The Trade Center hole in the ground is still sitting there. What a shame and embarassment.
There has been very little progress and a lot of harm done in the last 8 years financially and socially.
The only reason we are clamoring for government support these days is because government has completely failed at insuring economic security, regulatory honesty, and fiscal restraint. That which is destroying us is that which we have asked to save us.
I think we need to take a good long hard look at ourselves and what we are doing or not doing to insure domestic teanquilty. Certainly, being beholden to the rest of the world for oil, commodities, cheap labor, etc. is not a good way at protecting our safety erconomically or otherwise. Needlessly running up our debt to levels where we must beg China and others to buy our bonds also weakens the US. Economic strength more often proves more valuable than military strength. Without a strong economy it doesn't matter what you spend in defense, as proven by the fall of the USSR. We should wise up now and stop thinking government can solve everything by printing more money. This only leads to crippling our free market economy which is the source for our past economic resliency.
5 Stocks Expected To Decline In 2012 [View article]
Mark My Words, These Stocks Will Double In 2012 [View article]
The Stock Market Smells Deflation [View article]
Do Rocket Stocks Really Deliver? [View article]
I have watched these stock lists go from one failed recommendation to another for years from Krispy Kreme, Enron, and Boston Market to Crocs, Haliburton, Bof A, and Bre-X. Basically, I've noticed they manage to always capture the worst stocks and stock frauds along with a few gems. They also like current winners rather than seeing future category winners. 10 years ago you will probably see them recommending Dell, Microsoft, and Cisco not Apple.
Second Quarter Earnings Preview: Alcoa Launches Reporting Season [View article]
Why the Gold Rush Is Out of Steam and How to Respond [View article]
Sure in inflation stocks may outperform gold. That is commodity stocks including gold mining stocks. That doesn't make gold a bad buy. It certainly makes it better than treasury notes.
Welcome to Earnings Season [View article]
These Five Economic Barometer Stocks Are Pointing to a Higher Market [View article]
I'm skeptical that we are playing a dangerous currency game. In my mind, he future of the country rests in lower foreign energy dependence, medical and tech advances, and lower government and private sector leverage.
Is Alcoa the First Sign of 'Sell the News' This Earnings Season? [View article]
Alcoa: Reports In-Line, But Misses Revenue Estimates [View article]
They will keep bumping up numbers until they miss in droves. When they do you will be too late and the next recession will be upon you (a few months ago and after the stock market is down over 25% I'd guess). I don't think that time is upon us yet, so I expect decent earnings from a synthetic government stimulated market yet again.
Understanding the Dollar's Reversal: Who Will Feel the Pain? [View article]
I think that the Fed actually believes that if peasants (you and I) actually get money they have failed in their duty to further enrich financial institution they represent vs. everyone else. For your information, banks have never owned so much of America as they do today. I can see Bernanke cheering with all his friends, "Long live the Federal Reserve and fiat money. Down with populism, democracy, and all that rubbish."
Global Markets in Review: Risky Assets Disconnect from Fundamentals [View article]
Banks now sell mortgages at 5.xx % which can hardly cover the default risk let alone infation etc. The only reason they do is because they can dump them on Fannie Mae, Fredie Mac, Treasury, Federal Reserve, or FHA. Thus the taxpayer is taking all the risk. No bank in their right mind would sell one without being able to sell it to a government or quasi-government entity. Thus, traditional bonds have also becoming low interest paying garbage manipulated by the government so they won't reflect real risk either.
Thus we have what's left, stock and equity speculation, commodities to reflect real inflation and curb real dollar depreciation, and high yielding junk that at least pays enough to cover the 15% currency devaluation we are looking at this year and perhaps next year. At this rate, if you think the Peso was garbage 20 years ago get ready to feel like you're living in the real New Mexico. I wonder what they will think when Americans start accepting pesos as the preferable curency for payment over greenbacks. The Federal Reserve is shameful.
Expect Another Misguided Stimulus Plan [View article]
A Dow Double in 10 years? Easy [View article]
With Bernake at the helm, persistent dollar depreciation is a very high probability.
Gone Nowhere in 8 Years [View article]
There has been very little progress and a lot of harm done in the last 8 years financially and socially.
The only reason we are clamoring for government support these days is because government has completely failed at insuring economic security, regulatory honesty, and fiscal restraint. That which is destroying us is that which we have asked to save us.
I think we need to take a good long hard look at ourselves and what we are doing or not doing to insure domestic teanquilty. Certainly, being beholden to the rest of the world for oil, commodities, cheap labor, etc. is not a good way at protecting our safety erconomically or otherwise. Needlessly running up our debt to levels where we must beg China and others to buy our bonds also weakens the US. Economic strength more often proves more valuable than military strength. Without a strong economy it doesn't matter what you spend in defense, as proven by the fall of the USSR. We should wise up now and stop thinking government can solve everything by printing more money. This only leads to crippling our free market economy which is the source for our past economic resliency.